Nathan Guma
AN independent think-tank, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI), says the ruling Zanu PF is walking a familiar path, with the current internal divisions over President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s unconstitutional third term reminiscent of past contradictions that were ultimately settled through military intervention as seen in the 1975 Mgagao Declaration and the November 2017 coup.
Fissures in the party are widening, with indications of serious divisions over succession, amid growing doubts over President Mnangagwa’s sincerity in leaving office when his term ends in 2028.
Although Mnangagwa has declared his intentions to step down in 2028 when his term ends, concerns have been growing, with loyalists running a divisive campaign spurring the 81-year-old leader to stay beyond his two constitutional terms and hang on until 2030 outside an election.
According to a research study by ZDI titled Fractured Front: Analysing Zanu-PF’s Contradictions Over Third Term Politics, it is highly likely that the military will once again play a decisive role in resolving the party’s present-day elite discohesion.
“Whether through overt action or covert influence, the military is poised to act as the ultimate arbiter in this power struggle. However, it is crucial to recognize that such military interventions do not necessarily lead to genuine democratic breakthroughs for Zimbabwe,” it reads.
“Instead, they often result in a mere reshuffling of power within the existing elite, without addressing the underlying issues that plague the nation’s political system. As the factions within Zanu PF vie for dominance, the outcome of this internal conflict will shape the party’s future and, by extension, the country’s political landscape.
“Yet, without meaningful change, these interventions risk becoming repetitive cycles of power consolidation rather than catalysts for true democratic reform.”
ZDI says while the military’s involvement may temporarily stabilise Zanu PF, it is unlikely to bring about the substantive democratic transformation that Zimbabwe needs, with the broader implications for the country’s democracy remaining uncertain.
“As Zanu PF approaches its 2024 conference slated for 22 to 27 October in Bulawayo, the political landscape is characterised by glaring internal political contradictions and discord. Despite Mnangagwa’s public declarations that he is not interested in another term in office, persistent push for it by many of his party’s senior agents and organs suggests otherwise,” it reads.
“Zanu PF party’s internal dynamics have become ever more complex as the debate over President Mnangagwa’s unconstitutional third term intensifies. On one hand, there are vocal
“Third Term” proponents within the party who are adamant about extending.”
Military intervention
The history of Zanu PF both pre and post-independence is marked by significant moments where the military stepped in to resolve internal divisions and thereby asserting itself as a decisive power bloc within the party and state.
“The military elite initiated the rise and fall of the former President Mugabe, the rise of President Mnangagwa and, if not interrupted, it will be a mediator in his fall and the rise and fall of future leaders,” it reads.
In the past 41 years in Zimbabwe, the military/Zanu PF conflation has continued to wield decisive power in determining transition, possible democratic breakthroughs and undermining the role of elections, according to the research.
The military has been a power consolidation architecture for Zanu PF elites in most critical junctures in the transition history of Zimbabwe.
Mgagao Declaration and 2017 coup
One of the earliest instances of the military factor in succession politics within Zanu PF was the Mgagao Declaration of 1975, where military leaders played a crucial role in shaping the party’s direction by replacing Ndabaningi Sithole with Robert Mugabe.
This declaration underscored the military’s influence in political matters, setting a precedent for future interventions.
Fast forward to November 2017, the military once again demonstrated its pivotal role in Zanu PF’s internal politics, with the ousting of Robert Mugabe through a military coup being a clear indication of the military’s ability to influence the party’s leadership dynamics.
The coup, which was sanitised as a “military-assisted transition” to restore legacy and stability resulted in the ascension of President Mnangagwa to the presidency.
“Thus, the Mgagao Declaration and the November 2017 coup highlighted the military’s capacity to act as a kingmaker within Zanu PF ensuring that its interests are safeguarded.
As Zanu PF navigates the contentious issue of Mnangagwa’s third term, the military’s role will likely remain a critical factor in determining the party’s future trajectory and the broader political landscape of Zimbabwe,” it reads.
Diverging voices in Zanu PF
According to the research, Zanu PF’s internal dynamics have become ever more complex with the vocal “Third Termists” and the other which is adamant about extending.
The first faction, which includes influential figures such as the party’s national political commissar Munyaradzi Machacha is actively campaigning for the President’s continued tenure, citing his leadership as crucial for the party’s stability and the nation’s progress notwithstanding constitutional provisions.
Their arguments often emphasize the need for continuity and the consolidation of the gains made under Mnangagwa’s administration.
The ZDI report quotes Machacha as recently stating: “Isn’t this is what you term democracy. If we keep quiet, then you will say there is no democracy. And if others speak you question them.
“So here, it is the people who are talking and the President listens to the wishes of his people, ndozviripo [It is what it is]. The people are very much aware of the constitution, but they also desire the continuation of his leadership. So it is now up to him to make the final decision. But, just know that democracy does not please everyone, but that is democracy at work.”
However, other party members have been expressing discontent, with some senior war veterans from Masvingo province having been vocal in their opposition, highlighting the potential dangers of entrenching power within a single individual.
